The 2023 battle for the Virginia General Assembly is a contest of many firsts.
It is the first election in the Old Dominion under new state legislative maps and the first since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs decision, which kicked the hot-button issue of abortion back to the states.
It is the first contest featuring a candidate embroiled in scandal over engaging in pornography for tips, and it is the first — and last — opportunity Glenn Youngkin will have as a sitting governor to usher in a new era of Republican rule in Richmond
He will need to do that if he wants to strengthen his national profile for an eventual White House run.
“This contest, in a lot of ways, is being framed as Youngkin‘s midterm election,” said J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Youngkin spokesperson Macaulay Porter said the election offers voters a chance to help Republicans advance “key commonsense policy priorities” and reject the “continuous roadblocks” Democrats have thrown in the way.
“The left liberal progressives in Virginia are trying to make this election about abortion because they don’t have a commonsense record to run on,” she said in an email. “Voters want commonsense policies that further economic growth, create jobs, back the blue, and that run government more efficiently.”
All 140 seats in the legislature are up for grabs on Nov. 7. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House and Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate.
Mr. Youngkin and his super PAC, the Spirit of Virginia, are urging Virginians to take advantage of early voting, which started Sept. 22.
“Virginia, this fall, we can cut taxes, grow jobs, build safe communities and stand up for parents,” Mr. Youngkin said in a recent TV ad. “But to get it done, we need to win, and we can’t win if our candidates go into Election Day already down thousands of votes.
“So get in the game by making a plan to vote early,” he said.
Mr. Youngkin has been in the political spotlight since he crashed onto the scene as a happy warrior with a traditional conservative message that included empowering parents in schools.
He shied away from being a Trump-styled politician and showed little interest in relitigating the results of the 2020 presidential election. His star has burned so brightly that some in the party hope he will dive into the 2024 Republican presidential race.
Others insist Mr. Youngkin is more likely eyeing a White House run in 2028.
Consequently, he has a lot riding on the fight for control of the state legislature.
“If he wants to raise his national profile, he needs to have a record of conservative legislating that has basically been denied to him so far by the Democratic majority in the Senate,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington.
The Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington released a survey last week that found voters split over which party should call the legislative shots.
Democrats are looking to energize their base. They warn that a Republican governing “trifecta” in Richmond could strip away abortion rights, curtail early voting and loosen gun laws enacted under Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam.
“This is the first year on new maps and first year all seats are up post-Dobbs,” Heather Williams, interim president and former executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, told reporters on a conference call. “Make no mistake: An unchecked Republican trifecta would be devastating.
“You will see an abortion ban if that happens, and other fundamental freedoms would be taken away,” she said. “With how extreme Virginia Republicans have gotten, there is no telling how far they might go, but what is clear is the stakes of the election could not be higher.”
Virginia state law bans abortion after 26 weeks of pregnancy. Mr. Youngkin supports a 15-week ban.
Republicans counter that Democrats are the “extremists on abortion.”
“Most people believe that abortion at the moment of birth is wrong. Far beyond any reasonable limit,” the narrator says in a House Republican ad. “Not Virginia Democrats. They fought to make late-term abortions the rule, not the exception.”
Mr. Youngkin is carrying momentum out of the primary elections last year. The 10 candidates he endorsed emerged victorious in contested races, giving him a chance to gain more loyal troops in the Statehouse.
“He didn’t put his finger on the scale; he put his fist on the scale,” Mr. Farnsworth said. “The Youngkin vision of what the Republican Party should look like is the image that is going before voters this year.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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